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Showing posts with label Gold. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gold. Show all posts
Friday, 28 October 2011
Follow Up on Frontier Resources
As posted in a previous note, the main question for Frontier Resources (ASX: FNT.AX) is whether the deposit on New Britain has a reasonable chance of proving to be a large scale, economically producing, high grade mine. This is significant because the initial exploratory data was reported to be very positive (could this be a major deposit of Gold in a new territory, relatively unexplored New Britain of Papua New Guinea? -- similar to Lihir of Newcrest Gold (the 7th largest gold deposit in the world, discovered in the past 5 years?)
We won't answer this out with 100% certainty, but it seems we can be able at least shed some light on this main question, by asking few sub-questions first: 1. Does the management team have the connections and experience to at least get the ball rolling on development, if reserves are economic?
Second, are there high grade deposits nearby (in Papua New Guinea?). Mineral deposits are formed by geological processes, and these processes can be similar in nearby locations.
Third, what are the (known) geological processes for forming gold? This might sound too esoteric, but really this helps a lot, at least in the case of oil, in looking for new reserves (really many analysts won't even speculate on this, but for example, I know a bit about oil formation theory, and so for example, took a look at Petrobras of Brazil, looked at their producing wells, and saw huge territories unexplored plus offshore areas next to rivers -- good signs of future oil discoveries and Petrobras subsequently has announced very large
discoveries).
First question -- actually this is probably the best question -- management experience. The Chairman and CEO Peter McNeil is also CEO of another PNG based gold mining firm in addition to Frontier -- New Guinea Gold Corporation. Frontier Resources has only 2 full time employees in management, it appears, the CEO and a co secretary. (this data is really hard to find, is not in the Annual Report -- have to infer since they don't state how many employees).
New Guinea Gold is also mainly on New Britain, same management structure, just McNeil and a secretary and non-exec directors (so essentially it is a twin of Frontier except drills different prospects) has drilled 12 projects, got good exploration results (grades of over 2 g/ton, but hasn't been able to develop these projects, one problem was that crushing the ore turned out to be a problem, so gold production has been disappointing. The stock has been down a lot -- stock price on the Venture Exchange of Canada of New Guinea Gold has gone from .6 in 2007 to 0.1 currently -- the market has lost confidence that management will bring any projects into production and/or sell deposits.
Frontier Resources is also a vehicle to explore New Britain, is up a lot with the recent report of grades but -- really reading the reports from New Guinea Gold Corporation they sound sort of similar in terms of grade (some reports of very high grade 30-60 g/ton then most of above 2 g/ton) -- but New Guinea Gold hasn't been able to bring these online.
I've seen a small management team be CEO's of more than one mining co before --example New Gold and Silver Bear Resources -- both headed by the same management team -- note New Gold is doing great while Silver Bear isn't. So this isn't a bad sign necessarily -- what you do want to see is proven experience getting mines to production and building value. New Guinea Gold isn't this, Frontier so far isn't proven (wondering actually why two co's in the same region for the same type of deposit -- Silver Bear is at least for silver while New Gold is for gold, makes sense -- wondering if Frontier is another vehicle to make investors forget about lack of success at New Guinea Gold).
Anyway -- on the first question overall summary is "iffy."
Second question, yes there are good, relatively recent discoveries is Papua New Guinea. The most publicized is the LIhir Gold discovery on tiny Lihir Island in PNG: http://www.mining-technology.com/projects/lihir/ Amazingly, this deposit has 28.8M ou of gold reserves at an average grading of 3.5 g/ton (which is extremely high, most grades are 1 g/ton or lower) and ranks #7 on the world's largest gold deposits. http://www.minefund.com/mineral-deposits/richest-deposits.php In other words, huge! Lihir was bought out by Australia's Newcrest Gold in 2009, and Newcrest states that it wants to produce about half of its production from Lihir going forward (Newcrest is an amazing stock, Australia's largest Gold producer, has rocketed up to a $A30Bn market cap (3rd largest gold mining co in the world). Note that Newcrest's other major producing mine, Cadia East in Western Australia, produces over 1M ou per year of gold but from an average
grade of about 0.5 g/ton (so Lihir is about 7x more concentrated). Cadia East
has reserves of gold of about 18.7M ou, so Lihir has about 50% more gold. (in
other words, Lihir is a world class deposit)
Two other PNG projects appear in the top 200 largest gold deposits. Allied Gold owns Simbiri which is located also on a tiny PNG island (called Simbiri) about 30 km north of Lihir -- average grade is between 1.0-1.5 g/ton with total reserves of 2M ou (so much lower and smaller than Lihir, but LIhir is unusually large and high grade). Harmony Gold and Newcrest co-own Hidden Valley on the main lsland of PNG, with an average grade of 1.7 g/ton and total proven resource of 1.2M ou.
For gold mines in Indonesia, there are three in the top 200 (Indonesia could have similar geology to PNG, both are island countries and actually the main island of PNG is split evenly between Indonesia and PNG). Interestingly, Indonesia's gold deposits are all relatively low grade, below 0.5 g/ton, including the massive Grassberg mine, owned by Freeport (FCX), which has approx 35M ou of gold at an average grade of 0.4 -- note this mine is ranked #3 in terms of reserves of gold, and has already been in production since 1975 so could be depleted in terms of its higher grade ore.
In summary to question 1, there are high grade deposits in PNG and it doesn't appear that PNG has been a major destination of mineral exploration budgets (only a few firms, Newcrest, Harmony, Allied and some minors including Frontier searching so it is possible. Actually the next question is, what did the exploratory mineral info look for Lihir and the other major deposits? Were these close to info coming about concerning Andewa? Will try to find this.
Third question, (this is getting lengthy) gold appears to be formed by three main geological processes. First process, the Witwatersrand deposit in South Africa (largest in the world, produced approx 40% of the world's gold, but now is largely depleted except for underground mining, was in production since the 1910's) was formed approx 3 bn years ago -- the earth is 4.5 bn years old so South Africa is one of the few areas with surface areas formed during this time. Almost all other areas (with the exception of parts of Australia) have been reformed by more recent geological processes. The best theory is that during this period of the earth's history (3 bn years ago) heavier metals were flowing from the magma to the surface (gold, platinum) and the earth was in a different phase of history -- the gold is left over from this period, but not covered in vast amounts of overbuden unlike almost all other areas. This process is probably unique to S. Africa, won't explain Papua New Guinea gold.
Second process Carlin type deposits, found in Nevada -- gold is completely dissolved in minerals -- unique (I thnk) to mainly North America -- won't go into detail.
The journal Science explains a process of gold formation unique to Pacific Islands
-- water flow accumilates gold over relatively short periods (couple 100,000 years). Will reference for this (getting tired) -- anyway, need a lot of flowing water and a trap, can be a good source for PNG, for New Britain -- was how Lihir gold was formed.
Anyway so the summary would be management -- medium to negative, close-by deposits -- moderately positive, gold formation -- positive. Overall however probably question 1 is the most indicative and so overall I would say "iffy."
We won't answer this out with 100% certainty, but it seems we can be able at least shed some light on this main question, by asking few sub-questions first: 1. Does the management team have the connections and experience to at least get the ball rolling on development, if reserves are economic?
Second, are there high grade deposits nearby (in Papua New Guinea?). Mineral deposits are formed by geological processes, and these processes can be similar in nearby locations.
Third, what are the (known) geological processes for forming gold? This might sound too esoteric, but really this helps a lot, at least in the case of oil, in looking for new reserves (really many analysts won't even speculate on this, but for example, I know a bit about oil formation theory, and so for example, took a look at Petrobras of Brazil, looked at their producing wells, and saw huge territories unexplored plus offshore areas next to rivers -- good signs of future oil discoveries and Petrobras subsequently has announced very large
discoveries).
First question -- actually this is probably the best question -- management experience. The Chairman and CEO Peter McNeil is also CEO of another PNG based gold mining firm in addition to Frontier -- New Guinea Gold Corporation. Frontier Resources has only 2 full time employees in management, it appears, the CEO and a co secretary. (this data is really hard to find, is not in the Annual Report -- have to infer since they don't state how many employees).
New Guinea Gold is also mainly on New Britain, same management structure, just McNeil and a secretary and non-exec directors (so essentially it is a twin of Frontier except drills different prospects) has drilled 12 projects, got good exploration results (grades of over 2 g/ton, but hasn't been able to develop these projects, one problem was that crushing the ore turned out to be a problem, so gold production has been disappointing. The stock has been down a lot -- stock price on the Venture Exchange of Canada of New Guinea Gold has gone from .6 in 2007 to 0.1 currently -- the market has lost confidence that management will bring any projects into production and/or sell deposits.
Frontier Resources is also a vehicle to explore New Britain, is up a lot with the recent report of grades but -- really reading the reports from New Guinea Gold Corporation they sound sort of similar in terms of grade (some reports of very high grade 30-60 g/ton then most of above 2 g/ton) -- but New Guinea Gold hasn't been able to bring these online.
I've seen a small management team be CEO's of more than one mining co before --example New Gold and Silver Bear Resources -- both headed by the same management team -- note New Gold is doing great while Silver Bear isn't. So this isn't a bad sign necessarily -- what you do want to see is proven experience getting mines to production and building value. New Guinea Gold isn't this, Frontier so far isn't proven (wondering actually why two co's in the same region for the same type of deposit -- Silver Bear is at least for silver while New Gold is for gold, makes sense -- wondering if Frontier is another vehicle to make investors forget about lack of success at New Guinea Gold).
Anyway -- on the first question overall summary is "iffy."
Second question, yes there are good, relatively recent discoveries is Papua New Guinea. The most publicized is the LIhir Gold discovery on tiny Lihir Island in PNG: http://www.mining-technology.com/projects/lihir/ Amazingly, this deposit has 28.8M ou of gold reserves at an average grading of 3.5 g/ton (which is extremely high, most grades are 1 g/ton or lower) and ranks #7 on the world's largest gold deposits. http://www.minefund.com/mineral-deposits/richest-deposits.php In other words, huge! Lihir was bought out by Australia's Newcrest Gold in 2009, and Newcrest states that it wants to produce about half of its production from Lihir going forward (Newcrest is an amazing stock, Australia's largest Gold producer, has rocketed up to a $A30Bn market cap (3rd largest gold mining co in the world). Note that Newcrest's other major producing mine, Cadia East in Western Australia, produces over 1M ou per year of gold but from an average
grade of about 0.5 g/ton (so Lihir is about 7x more concentrated). Cadia East
has reserves of gold of about 18.7M ou, so Lihir has about 50% more gold. (in
other words, Lihir is a world class deposit)
Two other PNG projects appear in the top 200 largest gold deposits. Allied Gold owns Simbiri which is located also on a tiny PNG island (called Simbiri) about 30 km north of Lihir -- average grade is between 1.0-1.5 g/ton with total reserves of 2M ou (so much lower and smaller than Lihir, but LIhir is unusually large and high grade). Harmony Gold and Newcrest co-own Hidden Valley on the main lsland of PNG, with an average grade of 1.7 g/ton and total proven resource of 1.2M ou.
For gold mines in Indonesia, there are three in the top 200 (Indonesia could have similar geology to PNG, both are island countries and actually the main island of PNG is split evenly between Indonesia and PNG). Interestingly, Indonesia's gold deposits are all relatively low grade, below 0.5 g/ton, including the massive Grassberg mine, owned by Freeport (FCX), which has approx 35M ou of gold at an average grade of 0.4 -- note this mine is ranked #3 in terms of reserves of gold, and has already been in production since 1975 so could be depleted in terms of its higher grade ore.
In summary to question 1, there are high grade deposits in PNG and it doesn't appear that PNG has been a major destination of mineral exploration budgets (only a few firms, Newcrest, Harmony, Allied and some minors including Frontier searching so it is possible. Actually the next question is, what did the exploratory mineral info look for Lihir and the other major deposits? Were these close to info coming about concerning Andewa? Will try to find this.
Third question, (this is getting lengthy) gold appears to be formed by three main geological processes. First process, the Witwatersrand deposit in South Africa (largest in the world, produced approx 40% of the world's gold, but now is largely depleted except for underground mining, was in production since the 1910's) was formed approx 3 bn years ago -- the earth is 4.5 bn years old so South Africa is one of the few areas with surface areas formed during this time. Almost all other areas (with the exception of parts of Australia) have been reformed by more recent geological processes. The best theory is that during this period of the earth's history (3 bn years ago) heavier metals were flowing from the magma to the surface (gold, platinum) and the earth was in a different phase of history -- the gold is left over from this period, but not covered in vast amounts of overbuden unlike almost all other areas. This process is probably unique to S. Africa, won't explain Papua New Guinea gold.
Second process Carlin type deposits, found in Nevada -- gold is completely dissolved in minerals -- unique (I thnk) to mainly North America -- won't go into detail.
The journal Science explains a process of gold formation unique to Pacific Islands
-- water flow accumilates gold over relatively short periods (couple 100,000 years). Will reference for this (getting tired) -- anyway, need a lot of flowing water and a trap, can be a good source for PNG, for New Britain -- was how Lihir gold was formed.
Anyway so the summary would be management -- medium to negative, close-by deposits -- moderately positive, gold formation -- positive. Overall however probably question 1 is the most indicative and so overall I would say "iffy."
Is Chaoda Modern Dropping Because of an Unfounded Rumor that it Changed Auditors?
Chaoda Modern, the 3rd largest agicultural firm in China has dropped from a price of near HK$10 in the past year to somewhere near $HK4 currently. I suspect the current drop is due to an inaccurate rumor that Choada changed auditors -- but the last auditor Grant Thornton was acquired by the current auditor, BDO Seidman, which is the 5th largest auditor in the worldwide.
An article stating that Chaoda changed auditors appeared on Dec 31, 2010 on a blog --http://www.certifiedchinesetranslation.com/10/1230-Chaoda-Modern-Change-Auditors.html. Since that time the stock has dropped from $HK6 to $HK4ish, with the only other news a moderately positive 6 months ended Dec 31, 2010 earnings release (more on this earnings release below).
Chaoda is audited by BDO Seidman,which is the largest US based accounting firm outside the Big 4. The previous auditor Grant Thornton merged with BDO (reference: http://goingconcern.com/2010/11/exodus-watch-600-in-grant-thorntons-hong-kong-office-move-to-bdo/ but no change in auditors. BDO actually is probably a stronger accounting firm than Grant Thornton, but Grant had a good reputation as well.
Grant Thornton gave an unqualified opinion in the last Annual Report:
source: http://www.chaoda.com.hk/pic/201010272026685000.pdf p. 41-42
It should also be noted that Chaoda is ranked by Forbes as the 3rd largest agricultural co in China. It is very difficult to fake being one of the largest agricultural firms in the world's largest country in terms of agricultural production.
The results announcement was moderately strong. Chaoda reported good top line for the six month period ended Dec 31, 2010 (+18%) but flat in net profit, the main item was an increase in general and admin expenses to 6% of revenues from 2% the previous period, plus they issued shares to pay for mainly an acquisition of more land.
Shares increased as they issued equity instead of dipping into cash to fund expansion (don't really know why they won't utilize their very large cash and investment position). Chaoda has RMB3.8Bn of cash and no debt -- all assets are in RMB and look solid, buildings (RMB8Bn), vegetables in inventory (RMB2Bn) and they have very low liabilities RMB218M total. They also have RMB1.3Bn of equity assets - mainly I believe their share of HK listed Asian Critus. One asset is "prepaid premium for land leases" at RMB5.8Bn -- I believe this is tangible (prepaid leases, so expenses won't appear in future periods, as long as the firm is a going concern). With prepaid land leases, net tangible book value is RMB 24.9Bn while market cap is HK15Bn (RMB12.5Bn) so market cap is around 50% of book. PE is below 4 (interim 6 mo net profit is RMB1.54Bn).
Operating cash flow looks strong, equal to EBITDA of RMB1.8Bn for the interim period, but the co raised RMB2.3BN of financing (mainly equity) to fund expansion. Almost RMB1Bn from new shares issued over the past half year (this seems to me, not a huge dilution).
Note, the major reason for the increase in SG&A was an increase in options exercised, from only RMB6M in 2010 to 160M in 2011 - also note salaries were up about RMB100M (this is likely due to wage inflation in China, surprisingly workers are somewhat in short supply for farming). So this hopefully won't be repeated. -- they are approx 192M share options outstanding but the majority have excercise prices between $HK6.75 and HK$8.10 per share. The exception is the ceo who has 66M options with an excercise price of HK1.50 (but at least he'll be motivated to get the stock price up).
They are paying a dividend this year of RMB84M -- didn't pay a dividend last year. So at least will get some income, also shows they care about the stock price a bit.
Overall to me the company looks strong I don't know why it's dropping for sure -- the first drop, issuance of equity at HK$7.50 when the stock was trading at HK$9 -this made sense to drop, but the second drop, if it has anything to do with the rumor that they've changed auditors, is just plain wrong (the news of the previous auditor, Grant Thornton, being acquired by BDO maybe is not well known, and it may be thought that Chaoda really did want to change auditors, but BDO is a well respected accounting firm). So this one really has me scratching my head. It looks very strong, with the exception of the issuance of equity to fund expansion, that has made net profit growth relatively flat
An article stating that Chaoda changed auditors appeared on Dec 31, 2010 on a blog --http://www.certifiedchinesetranslation.com/10/1230-Chaoda-Modern-Change-Auditors.html. Since that time the stock has dropped from $HK6 to $HK4ish, with the only other news a moderately positive 6 months ended Dec 31, 2010 earnings release (more on this earnings release below).
Chaoda is audited by BDO Seidman,which is the largest US based accounting firm outside the Big 4. The previous auditor Grant Thornton merged with BDO (reference: http://goingconcern.com/2010/11/exodus-watch-600-in-grant-thorntons-hong-kong-office-move-to-bdo/ but no change in auditors. BDO actually is probably a stronger accounting firm than Grant Thornton, but Grant had a good reputation as well.
Grant Thornton gave an unqualified opinion in the last Annual Report:
source: http://www.chaoda.com.hk/pic/201010272026685000.pdf p. 41-42
It should also be noted that Chaoda is ranked by Forbes as the 3rd largest agricultural co in China. It is very difficult to fake being one of the largest agricultural firms in the world's largest country in terms of agricultural production.
The results announcement was moderately strong. Chaoda reported good top line for the six month period ended Dec 31, 2010 (+18%) but flat in net profit, the main item was an increase in general and admin expenses to 6% of revenues from 2% the previous period, plus they issued shares to pay for mainly an acquisition of more land.
Shares increased as they issued equity instead of dipping into cash to fund expansion (don't really know why they won't utilize their very large cash and investment position). Chaoda has RMB3.8Bn of cash and no debt -- all assets are in RMB and look solid, buildings (RMB8Bn), vegetables in inventory (RMB2Bn) and they have very low liabilities RMB218M total. They also have RMB1.3Bn of equity assets - mainly I believe their share of HK listed Asian Critus. One asset is "prepaid premium for land leases" at RMB5.8Bn -- I believe this is tangible (prepaid leases, so expenses won't appear in future periods, as long as the firm is a going concern). With prepaid land leases, net tangible book value is RMB 24.9Bn while market cap is HK15Bn (RMB12.5Bn) so market cap is around 50% of book. PE is below 4 (interim 6 mo net profit is RMB1.54Bn).
Operating cash flow looks strong, equal to EBITDA of RMB1.8Bn for the interim period, but the co raised RMB2.3BN of financing (mainly equity) to fund expansion. Almost RMB1Bn from new shares issued over the past half year (this seems to me, not a huge dilution).
Note, the major reason for the increase in SG&A was an increase in options exercised, from only RMB6M in 2010 to 160M in 2011 - also note salaries were up about RMB100M (this is likely due to wage inflation in China, surprisingly workers are somewhat in short supply for farming). So this hopefully won't be repeated. -- they are approx 192M share options outstanding but the majority have excercise prices between $HK6.75 and HK$8.10 per share. The exception is the ceo who has 66M options with an excercise price of HK1.50 (but at least he'll be motivated to get the stock price up).
They are paying a dividend this year of RMB84M -- didn't pay a dividend last year. So at least will get some income, also shows they care about the stock price a bit.
Overall to me the company looks strong I don't know why it's dropping for sure -- the first drop, issuance of equity at HK$7.50 when the stock was trading at HK$9 -this made sense to drop, but the second drop, if it has anything to do with the rumor that they've changed auditors, is just plain wrong (the news of the previous auditor, Grant Thornton, being acquired by BDO maybe is not well known, and it may be thought that Chaoda really did want to change auditors, but BDO is a well respected accounting firm). So this one really has me scratching my head. It looks very strong, with the exception of the issuance of equity to fund expansion, that has made net profit growth relatively flat
Economics of Deep Sub-Salt Operations Hinges on Cash Costs per Barrel
Petrobras´ market value is nearing $250Bn which is fairly high but if (the key) is ´the cash costs of the deep sea oil per barrel. PBR is spending at least $174Bn to develop this (one of the largest capital projects in history, ever).
I did a quick calcuation of the payback period of the deep sea oil costs. The estimate is that initially the deep sea will produce an additional 2 million barrels of oil -- quick calculation, assuming a profit per barrel of $40 after direct operating costs = $29.2Bn of profit per year, or a 5.96 year payoff period -- this is at the high end of aceptable levels of payoff, in which oil and gas firms want payoffs to be below 5 years.
If the profit after operating costs is $60, the payback period drops to 3.94 years. Need to find better data on direct operating costs. If it is only costing PBR $20 to hire workers, equipment, power, water, foodservice etc then this isn´t bad at all (since the deposit is likely very large and will last for decades)(the price of oil should be in the $70-90 range for a while).
One more note: I did find data that at least at Tupi the gas/oil ratio is 15-20% -- majority oil (perhaps the pressure maintains the longer hydrocarbon chains). In geological theory, the deeper the deposit, the hotter and the more the longer hydrocarbon chains will have been broken to form natural gas, but PBR seems quite confident the deposit is mainly oil (of course natural gas is cheaper currently and less profitable and also is much more difficult to transport from offshore locations).
I did a quick calcuation of the payback period of the deep sea oil costs. The estimate is that initially the deep sea will produce an additional 2 million barrels of oil -- quick calculation, assuming a profit per barrel of $40 after direct operating costs = $29.2Bn of profit per year, or a 5.96 year payoff period -- this is at the high end of aceptable levels of payoff, in which oil and gas firms want payoffs to be below 5 years.
If the profit after operating costs is $60, the payback period drops to 3.94 years. Need to find better data on direct operating costs. If it is only costing PBR $20 to hire workers, equipment, power, water, foodservice etc then this isn´t bad at all (since the deposit is likely very large and will last for decades)(the price of oil should be in the $70-90 range for a while).
One more note: I did find data that at least at Tupi the gas/oil ratio is 15-20% -- majority oil (perhaps the pressure maintains the longer hydrocarbon chains). In geological theory, the deeper the deposit, the hotter and the more the longer hydrocarbon chains will have been broken to form natural gas, but PBR seems quite confident the deposit is mainly oil (of course natural gas is cheaper currently and less profitable and also is much more difficult to transport from offshore locations).
Polyus Gold Reserves: Under-Appreciated
Polyus Gold may have significantly larger reserves of gold than is credited to the stock by the market currently. Polyus Gold (ADR: OPYGY) is the gold mining spin off from Nolisk Nickel. Polyus has the world's second largest gold mine by reserves, Natalka, at 40.8M ou of gold in place -- this compares to all of Barrick's Gold's reserves of 138M ou.(Barrick is the world's largest gold miner).
Gold miners report proved (90%) and probable (50%) reserves all together, unlike oil which typically report only proven (90%). Barrick reports it has 138M ous of reserves of gold, when you look at the 40-F, it has 30.3M ou of proven gold, 109.4M ou of probable http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/756894/000110465910017012/a10-4461_1ex99d1.htm
In comparison, Polyus reports reserves in the Russian classification system, which is A,B,C1 and C2. According to Nikolai Vlasov, chief geologist, Peter Hambro Mining plc, A,B,C1 are roughly equivalent to proved and probable. http://www.imcinvest.com/pdf/Russian_reserves_8.pdf
Polyus reports in its 2009 Annual Report 77M ou of A,B,and C1 gold reserves. Polyus also reports international standard reserves, mesaured of 14M ou and 66.3M ou of indicated. (total 80.4M)
Note that measured means that the reserves exist with high certainty (90%) but are not yet proven, in so far that they have not been proven to be economically mined through a feasibility study and http://www.polyusgold.com/eng/news/reports/audit/
According to Polyrus' investor's relations, Natalka's mine life to 2073 (very large mine), average cash costs per ounce of $51.3 (should be very profitable)(this is the mine info). The mine will double Polyus' current output of 1.38M ou per year of gold towards 2020, in 2014 it will increase by 48%.
In comparison Barrick (market cap: $50.9Bn) produces 7.4M ou. Newmont (market cap $28.8M) produced 5.3M ou in 2009, reserves of 92 M ou.
Polyrus I'm not sure the market cap, one source is saying $10Bn, another around $5Bn -- it is really attractive at $5Bn. I will double check this.
You can find a comparison of the world's richest gold mines here: http://www.minefund.com/mineral-deposits/richest-deposits.php There are only 6 mines with reserves of 30M ou or above,and only 8 with total reserves of 20 M ou or above. Barrick does not own any of these top 8 mines, but has interests in many smaller mines -- it appears Barrick has consolidated many individual mines, to form the world's largest gold miner.
Natalka will come on-stream in 2013 - actually late 2013. The shares haven't moved up too much -- except for after the financial crisis.
Overall I can tentatively say that Polyus is comparable in size to Barrick, in so far that it is a major miner of gold (the Russian reserve show that Barrick has 80% more gold than Polyus) -- but the market cap of Barrick is far higher, $50Bn verses $10Bn. Of course this reflects geopolitical risk (mining in Russia) -- next steps would be to compare average costs per ounce -- it seems most gold miners would have higher than Polyus' cash costs since the mines will be located in many different locations (a single, large deposit will lower cash costs per ounce since the set up costs of the electricity, water, housing, roads, equipment etc can be depreciated over a longer mine life). Further next steps are to analyze political risk.
Gold miners report proved (90%) and probable (50%) reserves all together, unlike oil which typically report only proven (90%). Barrick reports it has 138M ous of reserves of gold, when you look at the 40-F, it has 30.3M ou of proven gold, 109.4M ou of probable http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/756894/000110465910017012/a10-4461_1ex99d1.htm
In comparison, Polyus reports reserves in the Russian classification system, which is A,B,C1 and C2. According to Nikolai Vlasov, chief geologist, Peter Hambro Mining plc, A,B,C1 are roughly equivalent to proved and probable. http://www.imcinvest.com/pdf/Russian_reserves_8.pdf
Polyus reports in its 2009 Annual Report 77M ou of A,B,and C1 gold reserves. Polyus also reports international standard reserves, mesaured of 14M ou and 66.3M ou of indicated. (total 80.4M)
Note that measured means that the reserves exist with high certainty (90%) but are not yet proven, in so far that they have not been proven to be economically mined through a feasibility study and http://www.polyusgold.com/eng/news/reports/audit/
According to Polyrus' investor's relations, Natalka's mine life to 2073 (very large mine), average cash costs per ounce of $51.3 (should be very profitable)(this is the mine info). The mine will double Polyus' current output of 1.38M ou per year of gold towards 2020, in 2014 it will increase by 48%.
In comparison Barrick (market cap: $50.9Bn) produces 7.4M ou. Newmont (market cap $28.8M) produced 5.3M ou in 2009, reserves of 92 M ou.
Polyrus I'm not sure the market cap, one source is saying $10Bn, another around $5Bn -- it is really attractive at $5Bn. I will double check this.
You can find a comparison of the world's richest gold mines here: http://www.minefund.com/mineral-deposits/richest-deposits.php There are only 6 mines with reserves of 30M ou or above,and only 8 with total reserves of 20 M ou or above. Barrick does not own any of these top 8 mines, but has interests in many smaller mines -- it appears Barrick has consolidated many individual mines, to form the world's largest gold miner.
Natalka will come on-stream in 2013 - actually late 2013. The shares haven't moved up too much -- except for after the financial crisis.
Overall I can tentatively say that Polyus is comparable in size to Barrick, in so far that it is a major miner of gold (the Russian reserve show that Barrick has 80% more gold than Polyus) -- but the market cap of Barrick is far higher, $50Bn verses $10Bn. Of course this reflects geopolitical risk (mining in Russia) -- next steps would be to compare average costs per ounce -- it seems most gold miners would have higher than Polyus' cash costs since the mines will be located in many different locations (a single, large deposit will lower cash costs per ounce since the set up costs of the electricity, water, housing, roads, equipment etc can be depreciated over a longer mine life). Further next steps are to analyze political risk.
Monday, 10 October 2011
Benefits Of Buying Silver.
Since the beginning of the revolutions in the Middle East and North Africa, the prices for precious metals are steadily increasing. Especially silver has risen in price: 20% from the beginning of the year.
Since late 2008, the value of silver has increased in four times already and at the beginning of April reached 37.4 dollars per ounce. Only on the basis of 2011 the prices for this precious metal rose by almost 83%. Such vigorous dynamics is associated not only with the global investor interest in precious metals, but also the fact that silver is being actively used in industry now.
But despite a record increase in the cost of the metal, the bankers are convinced that investing money in it is still profitable. Projections for this year’s price of silver remain positive. Rising prices will continue this year. According to international analysts, the price of silver may rise to 46-50 dollars per ounce on world markets. The data from the survey conducted by Bloomberg also suggest that the silver in 2011 will be a leader of the rise in prices of various raw materials.
There are three main ways of investment in silver: buying silver bullions for self-storage and buying silver with simultaneous placing on current or deposit account at the bank. However, note that the difference between bid and ask prices of small bars in the banks can reach 25-30%. And the only consignments of silver from one kilogram can be beneficial for investors in the event of a price increase to the level promised by analysts. Additional profits can be obtained by placing silver on deposit in the bank.
Silver will always be in demand since it is used in many industries and its stocks are gradually exhausted. In summary it can be argued that investing in silver is promising to keep savings in the long run.
Since late 2008, the value of silver has increased in four times already and at the beginning of April reached 37.4 dollars per ounce. Only on the basis of 2011 the prices for this precious metal rose by almost 83%. Such vigorous dynamics is associated not only with the global investor interest in precious metals, but also the fact that silver is being actively used in industry now.
But despite a record increase in the cost of the metal, the bankers are convinced that investing money in it is still profitable. Projections for this year’s price of silver remain positive. Rising prices will continue this year. According to international analysts, the price of silver may rise to 46-50 dollars per ounce on world markets. The data from the survey conducted by Bloomberg also suggest that the silver in 2011 will be a leader of the rise in prices of various raw materials.
There are three main ways of investment in silver: buying silver bullions for self-storage and buying silver with simultaneous placing on current or deposit account at the bank. However, note that the difference between bid and ask prices of small bars in the banks can reach 25-30%. And the only consignments of silver from one kilogram can be beneficial for investors in the event of a price increase to the level promised by analysts. Additional profits can be obtained by placing silver on deposit in the bank.
Silver will always be in demand since it is used in many industries and its stocks are gradually exhausted. In summary it can be argued that investing in silver is promising to keep savings in the long run.
Forecasts About Prices For Silver.
Sorting out the issue of investing in gold (as the most popular precious metal), inevitably begin to be interested in the similar tools of investing money.
The first thing that comes to mind – is silver. It should be noted that the quotes of silver are moving often quite similar to the dynamics of the gold (most clearly seen in the crisis years, when the tendency of investors to protect their capital rises and therefore demand for precious metals increases).
Nevertheless, the relative price of gold and silver (i.e., the figure for how many ounces of silver you can buy an ounce of gold) is constantly changing (that is, in some periods the silver increases faster than gold, in others – on the contrary).
Now the silver relative to gold is rather cheap. A well-known Kiyosaki scares everybody by the depletion of reserves of silver in the world and the fantastic growth in its value. Perhaps, these fears are premature, but it is definitely worth attention.
Now many experts are inclined to believe that investments in silver in the long run are quite good. First of all, we must note that silver – in any case, is a reliable investment. Silver as a commodity is almost more valuable than gold, it is not only used in the jewelry industry, but also necessary in the art, for example, in instrumentation.
How can I invest in silver?
First of all, this is investment coins. Silver also is available in the form of bullions.
In addition, silver and gold can be “bought” in the form of metal bank accounts.
What are the differences between investing in silver and investing in gold in practice?
In my opinion, the main differences are two:
- The system (infrastructure) of investments in silver is less developed, so that residents of small towns, perhaps, will not be able to find the services suiting them.
- Investing in silver is more convenient for small private investors
The first thing that comes to mind – is silver. It should be noted that the quotes of silver are moving often quite similar to the dynamics of the gold (most clearly seen in the crisis years, when the tendency of investors to protect their capital rises and therefore demand for precious metals increases).
Nevertheless, the relative price of gold and silver (i.e., the figure for how many ounces of silver you can buy an ounce of gold) is constantly changing (that is, in some periods the silver increases faster than gold, in others – on the contrary).
Now the silver relative to gold is rather cheap. A well-known Kiyosaki scares everybody by the depletion of reserves of silver in the world and the fantastic growth in its value. Perhaps, these fears are premature, but it is definitely worth attention.
Now many experts are inclined to believe that investments in silver in the long run are quite good. First of all, we must note that silver – in any case, is a reliable investment. Silver as a commodity is almost more valuable than gold, it is not only used in the jewelry industry, but also necessary in the art, for example, in instrumentation.
How can I invest in silver?
First of all, this is investment coins. Silver also is available in the form of bullions.
In addition, silver and gold can be “bought” in the form of metal bank accounts.
What are the differences between investing in silver and investing in gold in practice?
In my opinion, the main differences are two:
- The system (infrastructure) of investments in silver is less developed, so that residents of small towns, perhaps, will not be able to find the services suiting them.
- Investing in silver is more convenient for small private investors
Gold Against Silver. What Is Better?
What is more profitable now: to invest in gold or silver? – A question asked by many people now who have decided not to just make money, but also to invest.
Let’s consider these two metals at a time and point out the main advantages and disadvantages.
Start with gold. Everybody loves gold and knows that it is always appreciated and will likely always be appreciated. Gold is steadily increasing in value for hundreds of years and does not think to stop its growth.
Gold is valued in all countries and is an international currency. Disadvantages of this metal are almost absent, except for the fact that investing in the short term, you can lose your money.
Now let’s talk about the silver. Since there is a record growth of silver (last year silver was worth in 2.5 times smaller than now), many investors are beginning to pay more and more attention to this precious metal.
Compared to gold, the silver has one valuable quality: it kills bacteria of various types and is a powerful antiseptic, making the water healing.
Six months ago I got the book Conspiracy of the Rich, written by Robert Kiyosaki. In this book I read about that in the near future silver will rise in price in several times and then I made a contribution by buying a few pounds of silver as a metal account.
Robert Kiyosaki, as always, was right, because it has a strong expertise in investment and finance. Given the fact that the silver on the planet is very limited and ends, you can safely invest in this metal even at its peak value.
And one more tip from Robert Kiyosaki and his adviser Michael Maloney: the real value of silver relative to gold is 12 to 1. I think it is not difficult to calculate that despite this record growth, the silver is still undervalued in some times and in all likelihood will continue to grow.
Let’s consider these two metals at a time and point out the main advantages and disadvantages.
Start with gold. Everybody loves gold and knows that it is always appreciated and will likely always be appreciated. Gold is steadily increasing in value for hundreds of years and does not think to stop its growth.
Gold is valued in all countries and is an international currency. Disadvantages of this metal are almost absent, except for the fact that investing in the short term, you can lose your money.
Now let’s talk about the silver. Since there is a record growth of silver (last year silver was worth in 2.5 times smaller than now), many investors are beginning to pay more and more attention to this precious metal.
Compared to gold, the silver has one valuable quality: it kills bacteria of various types and is a powerful antiseptic, making the water healing.
Six months ago I got the book Conspiracy of the Rich, written by Robert Kiyosaki. In this book I read about that in the near future silver will rise in price in several times and then I made a contribution by buying a few pounds of silver as a metal account.
Robert Kiyosaki, as always, was right, because it has a strong expertise in investment and finance. Given the fact that the silver on the planet is very limited and ends, you can safely invest in this metal even at its peak value.
And one more tip from Robert Kiyosaki and his adviser Michael Maloney: the real value of silver relative to gold is 12 to 1. I think it is not difficult to calculate that despite this record growth, the silver is still undervalued in some times and in all likelihood will continue to grow.
Gold – The Stock Commodity of All Time
Considered as the most precious metal today, investing in gold is not a bad idea. Today, gold plays a role in different economic markets. It can serve as a safe place to invest in times of economic downfall and instability. Having a gold investment in your portfolio can lower its risk and can serve as a comfort zone in times of inflation. And gold is the only asset that is not affected when currency becomes unstable. It is also regarded by some as without growth asset, gold is constantly compared to stocks. Stock is played in a stable economic environment while in a presence of instability investors tries to preserve their assets by investing in gold. Gold can be stored, exchanged and there are other ways on how gold can be of value.
There are many ways on how to invest in gold, and in can be in many forms. Like investing in gold bullions, it can be in bars or coins. Buying gold bullions is considered as the most popular way among those who are small time investors. The value of these coins depends on its gold content and differs from day to day price of the gold. And they can be considered as the easiest to sell. On the other hand you can invest on gold mining shares where you can be familiar of the market. In this area opportunity to earn dividends is a great possibility. Earnings increase as the price of gold increase.
Depending on what options you will choose, investing in gold have more advantages compared to investing in stock. Although gold value will still be depending on the supply and demand, gold investments offer lower risk that other investment can give. It’s a matter of analysis, research and deciding on what will benefit you mos
There are many ways on how to invest in gold, and in can be in many forms. Like investing in gold bullions, it can be in bars or coins. Buying gold bullions is considered as the most popular way among those who are small time investors. The value of these coins depends on its gold content and differs from day to day price of the gold. And they can be considered as the easiest to sell. On the other hand you can invest on gold mining shares where you can be familiar of the market. In this area opportunity to earn dividends is a great possibility. Earnings increase as the price of gold increase.
Depending on what options you will choose, investing in gold have more advantages compared to investing in stock. Although gold value will still be depending on the supply and demand, gold investments offer lower risk that other investment can give. It’s a matter of analysis, research and deciding on what will benefit you mos
Forex Gold Trading
Online trading in gold is very easy with forex. In the currency market, gold is considered a form of currency, and therefore money. Online trading is electronic gold and other currencies and oil. Gold traded in a manner similar to other currency pairs.
However there is a difference: gold, silver and other commodities can be traded against the U.S. dollar (USD). Prices are always expressed in U.S. dollar terms.
Trade gold rate.
What exchange rates, online trading in gold prices does not require a purchase “physical” or sale of real material. Do not buy gold, you can keep.
The gold trading method known as “over the counter” or OTC. Counter offers are not part of the population of any country and that the offers are not controlled by the same methods as the stock market. Counter trading is done directly between the seller and buyer. There are no other persons or organizations involved. OTC trading is the common form of trading on the forex currency exchange.
Day trading with gold.
The operators can make a day trading in gold, means a day trading refers generally completed before the close of business that day. Gold dealers usually maintain their position for only a short time, but it is not necessary to complete the transaction during the day. The agreement may be extended for two or three days, depending on how the operator decides to do the trick.
If an agreement on gold trading day opened, it can be close to one of three ways:
• The trader ends the deal
• The deal reaches its stop/loss limit
• The date decided for ending is reached
Until one of these three things happens, the deal continues. When your day-trading gold deal is open, it is renewed automatically every night at 22:00 GMT, and each time it is renewed, a small charge is made from your trading account.
The benefits of online gold trade.
Commodity trading online has become much more interesting business opportunities for the search of raw materials and real-time quotes, live map services. Internet technology has made the kind of commodity trading services with deep pockets reserved for the professional trader available to all.
Changes in the price of gold.
In general, when the price of gold rises, the price of U.S. dollar falls. That’s why investors use gold trading as a way of balancing the gains and losses in relation to the U.S. dollar. Furthermore, as gold tends to maintain its purchasing power over time, investors can buy gold to offset the effects of inflation and changes in currency values. The price of gold is measured by its weight. The price shows how much it costs per ounce of gold in dollars
However there is a difference: gold, silver and other commodities can be traded against the U.S. dollar (USD). Prices are always expressed in U.S. dollar terms.
Trade gold rate.
What exchange rates, online trading in gold prices does not require a purchase “physical” or sale of real material. Do not buy gold, you can keep.
The gold trading method known as “over the counter” or OTC. Counter offers are not part of the population of any country and that the offers are not controlled by the same methods as the stock market. Counter trading is done directly between the seller and buyer. There are no other persons or organizations involved. OTC trading is the common form of trading on the forex currency exchange.
Day trading with gold.
The operators can make a day trading in gold, means a day trading refers generally completed before the close of business that day. Gold dealers usually maintain their position for only a short time, but it is not necessary to complete the transaction during the day. The agreement may be extended for two or three days, depending on how the operator decides to do the trick.
If an agreement on gold trading day opened, it can be close to one of three ways:
• The trader ends the deal
• The deal reaches its stop/loss limit
• The date decided for ending is reached
Until one of these three things happens, the deal continues. When your day-trading gold deal is open, it is renewed automatically every night at 22:00 GMT, and each time it is renewed, a small charge is made from your trading account.
The benefits of online gold trade.
Commodity trading online has become much more interesting business opportunities for the search of raw materials and real-time quotes, live map services. Internet technology has made the kind of commodity trading services with deep pockets reserved for the professional trader available to all.
Changes in the price of gold.
In general, when the price of gold rises, the price of U.S. dollar falls. That’s why investors use gold trading as a way of balancing the gains and losses in relation to the U.S. dollar. Furthermore, as gold tends to maintain its purchasing power over time, investors can buy gold to offset the effects of inflation and changes in currency values. The price of gold is measured by its weight. The price shows how much it costs per ounce of gold in dollars
Silver, Gold Bars And Coins
A proportion of Television commercials, newspaper commercials and website pages never fail to make clear the soaring values of specified minerals in the planet in the present day. However, a lot of big firms are investing in such, and even putting them up for resale, because of the rates they are currently residing at. You’d have to speculate if gathering silver coins is a sensible move for it, as specialists shout, is presently enjoying wonderful rates all over and it’s the key explanation why one and all ought to participate in getting some for themselves.
Of course, one on no account neglects to disregard that the aforementioned purchase is regularly considered playing second fiddle to gold bullion, but the fact of the matter is a lot of investing experts maintain that investment in these wares is truly a smarter step to make. They’ve been used as investment items for as long as proprietors can remember, and in accordance to past facts, other objects of interest such as shares and bonds have been losing in worth, but not with these shiny raw materials. It’s still considered to be one of the greatest and most important commodities. Take note that it’s not simple to obtain bullion at such low charge due to the amplified need for it as an item. Some buyers are challenged with the choice to use either coins or bars as an investment opportunity.
The latter proves to be a fantastic option given that they never decline, and can constantly be resold fairly simply. The former, nevertheless, are not as reliable, but can be bought for their extreme artistic worth. They can function as collector’s items that you can show off to your contacts. When buying such items, people engrossed in doing so should make certain they always obtain their assets from a vendor with a superior reputation, just in case you might aspire to resell it. One point to reflect on is identifying what you want to put up for sale, be it bars or penny-like set ups (you get what I’m talking about). With that in mind, every time accomplish your checking in getting the fitting seller so that you will appreciate if the resources they’re selling you are of legitimate and genuine worth. Always remain aware of those dealers who plan to create a transaction with you on mobile telephones, as they may plan to cheat you on your money.
In the event you want to get your money back due to a change of mind, they might not be on hand to pick up the call up, as they’re going through the moment of their lives raking in all the bucks from what you’ve just provided them with. As an alternative, each time rely on a vendor with an actual material workplace, as they may perhaps have been taking part in the organization for quite some time now. So, keep in mind to look up reliable dealers via the internet through their internet sites, or even ask acquaintances who communicate the same enthusiasm and pastime as you, they just might make a high-quality referral that you will not be disappointed doing transactions with. silver prices are in print each day on the web.
Of course, one on no account neglects to disregard that the aforementioned purchase is regularly considered playing second fiddle to gold bullion, but the fact of the matter is a lot of investing experts maintain that investment in these wares is truly a smarter step to make. They’ve been used as investment items for as long as proprietors can remember, and in accordance to past facts, other objects of interest such as shares and bonds have been losing in worth, but not with these shiny raw materials. It’s still considered to be one of the greatest and most important commodities. Take note that it’s not simple to obtain bullion at such low charge due to the amplified need for it as an item. Some buyers are challenged with the choice to use either coins or bars as an investment opportunity.
The latter proves to be a fantastic option given that they never decline, and can constantly be resold fairly simply. The former, nevertheless, are not as reliable, but can be bought for their extreme artistic worth. They can function as collector’s items that you can show off to your contacts. When buying such items, people engrossed in doing so should make certain they always obtain their assets from a vendor with a superior reputation, just in case you might aspire to resell it. One point to reflect on is identifying what you want to put up for sale, be it bars or penny-like set ups (you get what I’m talking about). With that in mind, every time accomplish your checking in getting the fitting seller so that you will appreciate if the resources they’re selling you are of legitimate and genuine worth. Always remain aware of those dealers who plan to create a transaction with you on mobile telephones, as they may plan to cheat you on your money.
In the event you want to get your money back due to a change of mind, they might not be on hand to pick up the call up, as they’re going through the moment of their lives raking in all the bucks from what you’ve just provided them with. As an alternative, each time rely on a vendor with an actual material workplace, as they may perhaps have been taking part in the organization for quite some time now. So, keep in mind to look up reliable dealers via the internet through their internet sites, or even ask acquaintances who communicate the same enthusiasm and pastime as you, they just might make a high-quality referral that you will not be disappointed doing transactions with. silver prices are in print each day on the web.
Millions Of Investors Are Now Buying Gold Online To avaid their losses
Gold was used for a long time as a replacement for paper money and has been a standard for currency equivalents specific to economic regions or countries. Dozens European nations have set up gold standards in the ending part of the 19th century until these were disabled in the financial crises involving World War I. After the second World War, the Bretton Woods system pegged the United States dollar to gold at a rate of US$35 per ounce. The system stayed active until the 1971 Nixon Shock, when the US unilaterally suspended the direct convertibility of the dollar to gold and made the transition to a fiat currency system. The last currency to stop its connection from gold was the Swiss Franc in 2000.
Given today’s difficult economy, many investors are now turning back to Gold as a way to protect their assets against the fall of the dollar. You can Buy Gold today and its process is user-friendly to do so you do not need to invest too much time into it. By buying gold online, you will be able to enjoy a comfortable feeling knowing that you are investing in a totally recession-proof currency. Buy Gold Online dot net is a great resource for buying gold and learning about the different types of Gold Bullion Coins.
The next thing you must know before buying gold on the internet is to determine how much you want to spend. The budget spent needs to fit within your budget. Don’t buy more than you can afford as a start. Next, it is necessary for you to know the right type of gold you want to have. Some types of coins are historic coins or bullion coins. The price of each distinct coin depends of the rarity and the demand. If you are in the United States, you can purchase American Gold Eagle coins. If you are Canadian, you can invest in the Gold Maple Leaf coin. Also, they are decorative coins you might be interested in checking out. In fact, these coins are not too expensive on the market but the gold content is quite high.
Convinced yet? Buying Gold Online is without doubt the way to go in this declining economy. The dollar keeps losing power. Major banks in India, China and the Middle East are already spending billions of dollars in gold coins and bars for their own reserve. Those banks are trying to protect themselves against the US dollar, that has been used for decades as the planet’s reserve currency.
If you are searching the Internet for info about the topic of managed forex account, visit the website which was mentioned right in this passage
Given today’s difficult economy, many investors are now turning back to Gold as a way to protect their assets against the fall of the dollar. You can Buy Gold today and its process is user-friendly to do so you do not need to invest too much time into it. By buying gold online, you will be able to enjoy a comfortable feeling knowing that you are investing in a totally recession-proof currency. Buy Gold Online dot net is a great resource for buying gold and learning about the different types of Gold Bullion Coins.
The next thing you must know before buying gold on the internet is to determine how much you want to spend. The budget spent needs to fit within your budget. Don’t buy more than you can afford as a start. Next, it is necessary for you to know the right type of gold you want to have. Some types of coins are historic coins or bullion coins. The price of each distinct coin depends of the rarity and the demand. If you are in the United States, you can purchase American Gold Eagle coins. If you are Canadian, you can invest in the Gold Maple Leaf coin. Also, they are decorative coins you might be interested in checking out. In fact, these coins are not too expensive on the market but the gold content is quite high.
Convinced yet? Buying Gold Online is without doubt the way to go in this declining economy. The dollar keeps losing power. Major banks in India, China and the Middle East are already spending billions of dollars in gold coins and bars for their own reserve. Those banks are trying to protect themselves against the US dollar, that has been used for decades as the planet’s reserve currency.
If you are searching the Internet for info about the topic of managed forex account, visit the website which was mentioned right in this passage
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